Almost All of the ERCOT Queue's Growth Is Gas. Tafel Power.

For developers and large power buyers: the queue total keeps rising, but nearly every new gigawatt is a single fuel.

The ERCOT queue keeps getting bigger. Look closer and the growth has one source.

The growth has one source

Between June and December 2025, the queue grew by about 21 GW. Gas made up about 18 GW of that. Wind added a few. Solar was flat. Batteries went down a little.

Change in ERCOT queue capacity by fuel, second half of 2025 — Source: ERCOT GIM Trends. Analysis: Tafel Power

Why this is the real story

The headline number, total queue capacity, keeps climbing. That makes it look like broad growth across the board. It is not. Nearly all of it is one fuel. The queue is turning into a gas queue, one month at a time, and the total hides it.

What it means

For developers, you are competing for gas interconnection and gas turbines against a fast-growing field. The crowd is forming now, not later.

For large power buyers, the queue total overstates your choices. The firm supply is a single line, it is growing fast, and it is early. Most of it is still years from running.

Methodology

Numbers from ERCOT's GIM Trends series in the monthly GIS report. Net change is the difference in requested capacity by fuel from June to December 2025. All data compiled by Tafel Power from public sources. Framing informed by the firm's transaction advisory work in ERCOT and cross-ISO markets.