The ERCOT Queue Is Shrinking. That Is a Good Sign.

The ERCOT queue got smaller through late 2025. That sounds like bad news. It is not.

Two numbers moving apart

In mid 2025 the queue held about 2,050 projects. By early 2026 it was under 2,000. Fewer projects. But total capacity went up over the same stretch. So each project is bigger. The average grew from about 204 MW to 224 MW.

Why fewer projects is good here

A smaller queue sounds like demand cooling off. It is the reverse. Small, speculative projects are washing out. Larger projects, the kind built for data-center load, are coming in. A queue with fewer, bigger, more serious projects is a healthier queue, not a weaker one.

What it means

For developers, the bar is rising. The projects that stay are larger and better funded. A small project is now the odd one out.

For funds, do not judge the queue by how many projects it holds. Judge it by size and by how many have signed real agreements. Both point to a more serious field.

Methodology

Project counts and capacity from ERCOT's GIM Trends series in the monthly GIS report. Average size is total requested capacity divided by project count. All data compiled by Tafel Power from public sources. Framing informed by the firm's transaction advisory work in ERCOT and cross-ISO markets.