Tafel Power

Data Center Gas Plants: The Record

Thirty-one gas plants that public filings tie to data center load, in five groups, read from the orders, the SEC filings, the permits and the company releases. Facts and sources only. The argument is in the brief this supports.

For developers · For infra funds · For utilities · For hyperscalers · project-economics · capital · large-load · gas · data-centers

Kris Narayanan · Tafel Power · September 25, 2026 · 27 min read


Facts and sources for How a Data Center Gas Plant Gets Paid. Nothing here argues anything.

The table covers 31 gas plants, turbines or engines that a regulator's order, an SEC filing, a permit or the company's own statement ties to data center load in the United States, as of September 2026. A row is a plant or a group of units as the filings present it. "Not confirmed" marks a cell that could not be confirmed against the primary document on a second reading. CONFLICT marks two primary sources that disagree; both are kept.

The questions, by group

Buyers, terms, gas price, owners, funding and backstops are in the group tables below.

QuestionRegulated, sharedRegulated, ring-fencedUtility-served outside an organized marketOrganized marketNot connected to the grid
What happens at the end of the term?The plant stays a system resource. Asset life stated only for Cleco (30 years) and Georgia (45). Entergy's new firm gas transport in north Louisiana runs to January 2048 (company release). Evest has a renewal option.Bespoke runs to the depreciable life, amendable after year ten. Indiana: termination payments largely at net book value; option to halve to 1,200 MW from January 2032.Not disclosed.Not disclosed.Matador: two 5-year renewals. Williams: extension option; partner buyout in years 7 to 14. Monarch: extensions at Anthropic's option. Hillcore: transfer terms not stated.

Regulated, cost shared across all customers

Eleven rows, five deals. Entergy's new firm gas transport in north Louisiana runs from February 2028 to January 2048 (Energy Transfer release). The Evest agreement runs 20 years with a renewal option (party filing).

PlantOwnerOfftakerMW as statedContract formTermGas priceFundingStatus
Franklin Farms 1-2, Richland Parish LAEntergy LouisianaMeta via Laidley LLC (order)"approximately 1,500 megawatts" (pair)Rate base, system resource (a); certification is not an approval of the Meta agreement (a)15 yr (company release only)All customers via fuel clause (inferred)Formula rate plan or regulatory asset; mortgage bondsUnder construction; in service 2028
Waterford 5, Killona LAEntergy LouisianaAs aboveNot stated alone; in "2,262 MW" for three unitsAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveIn service 2029
Richland Parish Units 1-4, LAEntergy LouisianaEvest LLC (order); Meta guaranty (Entergy SEC filing)In "5,278 MW" (seven units, with Pointe Coupee)Rate base plus agreement with CIAC; agreement not yet effective20 yr plus renewal (b)Not disclosedRate base plus customer CIAC and advance paymentsCommission 16 Dec 2026; in service 2030-2031
Pointe Coupee Units 1-3, LAEntergy LouisianaAs aboveIn "5,278 MW"As aboveAs aboveNot disclosedAs aboveAs above
Delta Blues, Washington County MSEntergy MississippiAWS campuses (SEC filing); no plant-to-campus mapping (c)"754 MW"Rate base through formula rate plan (statute); confidential supply agreementTrade secret by statuteAll retail via energy cost riderRate base; cash return on construction workUnder construction; by May 2028
Traceview, Madison County MSEntergy MississippiAs above"754 MW"As aboveAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveUnder construction; 2029
Vicksburg, Warren County MSEntergy MississippiAs above; Feb 2025 Warren County AWS agreement (SEC filing)"754 MW"As aboveAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveUnder construction; Aug 2028
New CCGT, Rapides Parish LACleco PowerApplied Digital (party filing); hyperscaler tenant unnamed"a new 756 MW"System resource; site specific contract, take-or-pay (d)15 yr initial (d); plant life 30 yrAll customers via fuel clause (requested)Rate base (requested); customer CIAC; customer pays 370 MW bridge capacityFiled Jul 2026; Commission Mar 2027
Bowen 7-8, Bartow County GAGeorgia PowerNone named (e)"1,482" MW summerRate base, system resourceCustomer term in no order; asset life 45 yrAll customers, retail fuel recoveryRate baseCertified Dec 2025; COD Nov 2029 and May 2030
Wansley 10-11, Heard County GAGeorgia Power (Dalton Utilities 1.5%)As above"1,453" MW summerAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveCOD Nov 2029 and May 2030
McIntosh 12, Effingham County GAGeorgia PowerAs above"757" MW summerAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveAs aboveCOD Nov 2030; court appeal not confirmed

(a) A term of the settlement the Louisiana commission accepted in globo in Order U-37425, not a Commission finding. The settlement states that the certification of the plants is not to be "construed as approval of the ESA and the Related Agreements." Entergy's release of 1 December 2025 says Meta "will fund the full cost of the utility infrastructure required to interconnect and serve" its data center, which "prevents cost-shifting to other customers," with projected customer savings of "approximately $650 million" over the 15-year agreement (company release). (b) Entergy Louisiana's own motion in Docket U-37882, a party filing. The Commission's floor, at least 15 years and fixed revenue covering at least one-half of the fixed revenue requirement, is stated here as Entergy Louisiana's motion quotes it. (c) CONFLICT: Entergy's 10-K ties the February 2025 AWS agreement to Warren County. Its 10-Q says "The February 2025 agreement will serve" the Madison County expansion. (d) Cleco's own application in a pending case. The $69.1M below is from Cleco's 10-Q, which does not name Applied Digital. (e) The data center tie is a joint statement of Commission Staff and Georgia Power, a party filing. The order mentions data centers in its history of the 2023 plan update and not elsewhere, and the application does not use the term "data center". Summer capacity is from the application.

Who is bound, and to whom

InstrumentWho paysWho is protectedWhat caps it
Laidley minimum monthly charges, early termination fee, parent guaranty, credit insuranceMeta via LaidleyEntergy Louisiana and its other customersNo public amounts. Guaranty coverage measured against the utility's project spending (order)
Evest CIAC, advance payments, minimum bills, termination payments, Meta guarantyEvest and MetaEntergy LouisianaTermination based on the utility's unrecovered incremental costs. Fixed revenue "significantly more than one-half" of the fixed revenue requirement (party filing)
Evest performance obligationsEntergy LouisianaEvestPenalties, amounts not disclosed
Mississippi early termination provisionsAWSEntergy MississippiCover incremental investment. Amounts confidential
Cleco minimum bill, termination fees, letter of credit, parent guarantyCustomer, and the hyperscaler tenant's parentCleco$69.1M billed at 30 June 2026, recorded as CIAC
Cleco bridge capacity, 370 MW for 10 yearsCustomerCleco's other customersCustomer pays the entire cost (party filing)
Georgia residential downward pressureLarge load revenueThe typical residential customerAt least $8.50 a month in 2029 to 2031 (order); $15.00 if enough large load contracts are approved (party filing)
Georgia revenue deficiencyGeorgia PowerCustomers other than large loadsGeorgia Power will not seek recovery of an unmitigated deficiency from them; recovery at the Commission's discretion (party filing)

Regulated, cost ring-fenced to the data center

Five rows, two utilities.

PlantOwnerOfftakerMW as statedContract formTermGas priceFundingStatus
Oak Creek CTs, Milwaukee County WIWisconsin Electric"one customer, the Very Large Customer" (order); Microsoft only in applicant testimony"approximately 1,100 MW"Bespoke Resource, Full Benefits, VLC tariffVLC 15 yr initial; Bespoke at least depreciable lifeCustomer, "including Fuel Costs"$1,205M plus AFUDC, recovered from customerUnder construction; in service Jul 2028
Paris RICE, Kenosha County WIWisconsin ElectricAs above"approximately 128 MW"As aboveAs aboveCustomer$279.6M plus AFUDC, from customerUnder construction; COD 2027 not confirmed
Foundry Ridge, Walworth County WI (f)Invenergy builds; Wisconsin Electric acquiresSingle VLC; Vantage by an NDA reference (party filing)"270 MW (nameplate capacity)"Acquisition into Bespoke, Full BenefitsDepreciable life (tariff rule; no executed contract)Customer$564.2M, from customerPending; in service by Dec 2028
Red Oak Ridge, Kenosha County WI (f)As aboveSingle VLC, named in no primary document"1,125 MW (nameplate capacity)"As aboveDepreciable life; gas precedent agreement 20 yrCustomer$1.770B, from customerPending; partial Dec 2029, full Jun 2030
Schahfer CCGTs, Jasper County INNiSource GenCo; Blackstone affiliates 19.9% one level upAmazon Data Services (order)"two 1,300 megawatt" CCGTsGenCo to NIPSCO PPA plus NIPSCO to Amazon special contract15 yr (g)Amazon, outside NIPSCO's fuel charge (order)GenCo and NiSource plus Blackstone equity; about $7B for generation and related transmissionApproved Jun 2026; ramp to 2,400 MW by end 2032

(f) Figures from Wisconsin Electric's applications, party filings. Oak Creek and Paris figures are from the Commission's certificate decisions. (g) The term, fixed capacity charge, parent guaranty and IRR collar are petitioner testimony in an order approving a settlement. The option to halve is a NiSource 10-K statement, not a finding.

Also not confirmed: the Paris engine maker (Wartsila, from a web page), and WEC's statement that the Bespoke return is "excluded from future rate case proceedings"; the order calls it "a set cost of capital" and does not address duration. WEC states a peak collateral requirement of about $7 billion without naming the plants.

Who is bound, and to whom

InstrumentWho paysWho is protectedWhat caps it
Wisconsin Bespoke exitCustomerWisconsin Electric and its other customersNet book value, to the extent the plant cannot be repurposed
Wisconsin collateralCustomerWisconsin ElectricAggregate net book value. Waived for a customer rated at least A- and A3 that passes a net worth or liquidity test
Wisconsin minimum billing demandCustomerOther customers100 percent of initially forecast load, transmission charge only; not a generation take
Indiana fixed capacity chargeAmazonGenCoMinimum and maximum unlevered IRR, values not disclosed
Indiana parent guarantyAmazon's ultimate parentNIPSCO and GenCoNot disclosed
Indiana exitAmazonGenCoCapped reimbursement; termination payments largely at net book value

Utility-served outside an organized market

One row, moved from the off-grid group because Black Hills filed for a substation to serve Cheyenne Power Hub LLC and WY DC 1 LLC, with 230 kV tie lines to the data center facilities, and told investors the generation is "tied to our system". WECC, no RTO. No Commission order was read.

PlantOwnerOfftakerMW as statedContract formTermGas priceFundingStatus
Cheyenne Power Hub, Laramie County WYCONFLICT: Tallgrass (release) or a Crusoe subsidiary (PSC notice)Campus at Switchgrass; end user after Jun 2026 not confirmed; retail utility Cheyenne Light, Fuel and Power (Black Hills)"approximately 1,150 megawatts" (phase 1)Retail service under the Black Hills large power tariff, not signed as of Feb 2026; generator to load contract not disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosed; gas via Rockies ExpressTallgrass, over $7 billion (release); substation paid by customerDevelopment; substation in service Aug 2027 (utility estimate)

The contract form and the substation come from the Wyoming PSC's notice summarizing Black Hills's application, a party filing. The Wyoming air permit was not located.

InstrumentWho paysWho is protectedWhat caps it
Substation, Facility Expansion AgreementCustomerThe utility's other customers, against "a stranded asset if Crusoe discontinues service in Cheyenne"About $20.5M
Capacity paymentNot disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosed

Organized market

Three rows. Only Kilby has a named offtaker and a contract. No capacity payment, minimum take or exit fee is disclosed for any of the three. Chevron's release says Kilby is "targeting mid-teen returns." Kilby's four ERCOT requests total 2,377 MW of gas, most of the plant's stated 2.67 GW, so they are the plant itself seeking a grid connection, not capacity on top of it.

PlantOwnerOfftakerMW as statedContract formTermGas priceFundingStatus
Project Kilby, Reeves County TXEnergy Forge One LLC, "a 50/50 joint venture between Chevron and Joulent" (Chevron's Kilby project site, read 25 Sep 2026); Chevron's release of 22 Jun 2026 describes it as "a wholly owned subsidiary"Microsoft (SEC filing)"approximately 2.67 gigawatts"PPA20 yrNot disclosed; Permian gas; buyer not confirmedChevron capex, not Kilby by name; FID expected by end 2026Pre-FID; draft air permit Apr 2026; ERCOT requests, no interconnection agreement; first power 2028
Crusoe Goodnight, Armstrong County TXCrusoe (air permit applicant); later owner not disclosedEnsign (Texas PUC order)"933" MW (sum of unit nameplate)Not disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosed; gas from "a third-party utility"Not disclosedAir application Jan 2026; no preliminary decision
Homer City Energy Campus, Indiana County PAHomer City Generation LP; Knighthead about 75.55%, GoldenTree 12.03% (party filing)Not disclosed; DEP says Homer City "has not confirmed" a data center"up to 4.4 gigawatts"Not disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosed; EQT agreement in principleSponsor equity, "more than $1 billion" (release)Under construction; air plan approval Nov 2025, appeal status not confirmed; first power early 2028

Kilby's ERCOT requests at Solstice 345 kV are 371, 950 and 1,056 MW of gas and 330 MW of storage. ERCOT's Co-located Battery Identification Report lists all four as a battery co-located with thermal units at the same point of interconnection; it is a report about batteries, not about large loads. The Goodnight order date within July 2026 is not confirmed. Homer City's PJM connection rests on sponsor statements only, and its FT8 unit count is not confirmed.

Not connected to the grid

Eleven rows, seven campuses. Not every row is cleanly islanded; the note below the table says where the placement is weaker.

PlantOwnerOfftakerMW as statedContract formTermGas priceFundingStatus
Monarch Compute Campus, Mason County WVNscale via AIPCorp; permittee Monarch Cloud Campus LLCAnthropic (SEC filing)"an initial 2 GWs of gross power capacity"No power contract; power inside an all-in GPU per hour priceMulti-year tranches, months redactedNscale, "at Provider's own expense"Sponsor; Caterpillar Financial vendor finance; no binding financing yetAir application under review; 2 GW by 1H 2028
Stateline Power, Southaven, DeSoto County MSStateline: Solaris 50.1%, MZX Tech (xAI) 49.9%xAI via MZX Tech LLC (SEC filing)"up to approximately 900 megawatts"Turbine rental, not a PPA7 yr initialxAI supplies the fuelEquity $86.4M in kind and $86.0M cash; Stonebriar loan, $360.7M drawnAir permit Mar 2026; no lease commenced at 30 Jun 2026
Project Matador, Fermi generation, Carson County TXFermi subsidiariesTensorWave TEX1 (SEC filing); lease not yet effective at the Q2 2026 10-Q"222 MW of total facility power" (tenant)Modified net lease; power charges as rent15 yr plus two 5-yr optionsThe tenant: "a variable power charge equal to the actual cost of electricity delivered" (SEC filing); Fermi's filing states it may not fully pass gas cost throughEquipment debt (MUFG, CSG with CLMG as agent, Keystone); 5% converts; lease conditional on project financing (Q2 2026 10-Q)Lease closing expected on or before 30 Sep 2026, subject to extension (Q2 2026 10-Q); halls from Jan 2028
Hillcore Power Center, Carson County TXHillcore Energy Capital, build-own-operate-transferFermi as anchor offtaker (SEC filing)"up to approximately 2.6 GW"; initial "approximately 360 MW"Toll-like end-user PPAs, take-or-pay; framework onlyFramework 3 yr; 20-yr PPA only in investor materialsFermi (gas pass-through)Hillcore "intends to finance"Framework 11 Aug 2026; definitive documents due about 9 Nov 2026
Socrates South, Licking County OHWilliams; 49% JV partnerSidecat LLC, Meta affiliate (h)"expected 556 MW" (with Socrates North)"primarily fixed-price" PPA10 yr plus extension optionNot disclosedWilliams plus JV partner (59% of capital for 49%)In service late Jul 2026
Socrates North, Licking County OHAs aboveSame Socrates PPA (SEC filing)In "expected 556 MW"As above10 yrNot disclosedAs aboveLater Q4 2026; islanding not confirmed
Apollo, Wood County OHAs aboveLiames LLC (regulator release)"490 MW""primarily fixed-price" PPA (Socrates wording, not re-checked here)12.5 yrNot disclosedAs above2H 2027
Socrates the Younger, Licking County OHAs aboveSidecat LLC (regulator release)"340 MW"As Apollo10 yrNot disclosedAs aboveCertificated Jun 2026; 2H 2028
Neo, Licking County OHAs aboveNot disclosed"682 MW"As Apollo12.5 yrNot disclosedAs aboveHearing 6 Oct 2026; islanding not confirmed
VoltaGrid ABI-1, Shackelford County TXVoltaGridVantage Data Centers (permit application); end tenant not disclosed"2,582 megawatts (MW)" (expansion application, pending)Not disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosed for the project; VoltaGrid corporate notes and credit facilityInitial permit active; expansion pending
Crusoe Abilene Buildings 9-10, Taylor County TXCrusoe (per Crusoe release)CONFLICT: Microsoft (Crusoe release) or Oracle (TCEQ records)"The 900MW on-site power plant"Not disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosedNot disclosedAir preliminary decision noticed 5 Aug 2026; first building mid-2027

Placement. Matador and Hillcore sit on a private grid in Southwestern Public Service territory in SPP, with interruptible retail supply from that utility of 86 MW expected in the second half of 2026 and a further 114 MW targeted but not yet fully committed, and no generator interconnection disclosed. Islanding is not confirmed for Socrates North and Neo. Abilene 9-10 is placed here on a Crusoe process diagram, not a filing, and VoltaGrid on an equipment specification in its permit application.

(h) Socrates South's offtaker and islanding come from the Ohio Power Siting Board staff report, a recommendation. Apollo and Socrates the Younger rest on the Board's releases. None of the certificates was retrieved. Williams describes the customer as "a large, investment-grade company". Williams' megawatts and the Board's differ in basis. Also not confirmed: Monarch's certification as a West Virginia microgrid district (the September 2026 certification is a High Impact Data Center certification), and the arrangers of VoltaGrid's notes.

Who is bound, and to whom

InstrumentWho paysWho is protectedWhat caps it
Monarch service feesAnthropicNscaleNone until each tranche is accepted. On delay, a payment holiday and termination of the tranche without liability
Southaven rentxAI, through MZX TechStatelineMonthly rent per turbine in advance, CPI escalation from year three. Termination payment a redacted percentage of remaining rent
Southaven performanceStatelinexAILessor default if output falls below 70 percent for 20 of 60 days
Matador power chargesTensorWaveFermiFixed charge with annual escalation, amount not disclosed; variable charge at the actual cost of electricity. About $6.5B contracted revenue over the lease, aggregate only
Hillcore capacityFermi, fixed charge passed to tenantsHillcoreTake-or-pay on at least 50 percent of all tenants' requirements. Fermi's guarantee is capped at twelve months of fixed capacity charges then payable
Hillcore fuelFermi, then the tenantHillcoreGas costs are "treated as a pass-through" to Fermi under the Hillcore terms; the lease charges the tenant "a variable power charge equal to the actual cost of electricity delivered to the Premises"
Williams long-lead equipmentCustomerWilliamsReimbursement if the order is canceled; amounts not disclosed
Stonebriar term loanStatelineStonebriarNon-recourse, secured solely by Stateline's assets. Up to $550M or 80 percent of equipment cost. Notes run 72 months at 9.85 percent, 80 percent amortizing, 20 percent balloon
Williams JV partner returnThe Williams JVBlackstone Credit & Insurance with Apollo and KKR accountsTarget return 6.35 percent, no upside. Buyout in years 7 to 14 at the partner's balance
Keystone equipment financingFermi subsidiaryKeystoneMandatory prepayment if no approved customer agreement by 31 December 2026
Siemens rated capacityFermiSiemensUp to $2 million per turbine per quarter, at least $80 thousand, for ten years, capped at about $240.0 million

What is disclosed

"Yes" means a primary document states it for that row. "Partial" means it states part of it, or needs an inference. "No" means not disclosed in any document read.

GroupRowsTerm: yes / partial / noGas price holder: yes / partial / noWho funds: yes / partial / noProject lender namedBackstop mechanism: yes / none stated / noBackstop amount: dollars / level or formula / no
Regulated, shared115 / 0 / 66 / 3 / 211 / 0 / 0011 / 0 / 04 / 2 / 5
Regulated, ring-fenced55 / 0 / 05 / 0 / 05 / 0 / 005 / 0 / 00 / 5 / 0
Utility-served outside an organized market10 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 11 / 0 / 001 / 0 / 01 / 0 / 0
Organized market31 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 31 / 1 / 100 / 0 / 30 / 0 / 3
Not connected to the grid117 / 2 / 24 / 0 / 79 / 0 / 218 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 9
Total3118 / 2 / 1115 / 3 / 1327 / 1 / 3125 / 1 / 56 / 8 / 17

The one project lender is Stonebriar at Southaven. The Louisiana mortgage bonds are utility corporate debt, and Homer City's first-lien loans held by CION are not established as construction debt. The six dollar figures are Cleco, the three Georgia rows, the Cheyenne substation and Matador's aggregate contracted revenue. Level or formula only: the two Evest rows, the four Wisconsin rows, Indiana (termination payments largely at net book value) and Hillcore. Matador's gas price holder moved from partial to yes on 25 September 2026, when Fermi's 10-Q wording on the variable power charge was confirmed.

Multiples

Every multiple a buyer or developer stated was found again, word for word, on a second reading. Each is shown on the earnings year and basis it names. They are not averaged.

As stated

DealBuyerStated multipleEarnings year and basisContract statusSource
Talen / Caithness and GIP: Freedom and Guernsey, 2,881 MW, PJMTalen6.7x (7.1x excluding tax benefits)2026E, adjusted for $300M NPV of tax benefitsMerchant; no contract disclosed. Closed Nov 2025Talen 8-K of 17 Jul 2025, Ex. 99.1 and Ex. 99.2
Talen / ECP: Lawrenceburg, Waterford, Darby, 2,567 MW, PJMTalenAbout 6.6x2027E, not tax-adjustedMostly merchant, with existing energy and capacity hedges, including 837 MW of Lawrenceburg capacity sold to Indiana Michigan, Jun 2028 to May 2034. Closed 15 Jun 2026Talen 8-K of 15 Jan 2026, release and deck
Capital Power / LS Power: Hummel and Rolling Hills, 2,147 MW, PJMCapital PowerAbout 7xFive-year average 2026-2030 EV / Adjusted EBITDA, stated as comparable to 2026EMerchant ("PPA Term at Acquisition: n/a"). Closed 9 Jun 2025Capital Power release and deck, 14 Apr 2025
Vistra / Lotus: 7 plants, 2,557 MWVistraAbout 7x2026E Adjusted EBITDA, excluding synergiesHedge book: $417M of derivative liabilities assumed. Closed 22 Oct 2025Vistra 8-K Ex. 99.1, 21 May 2025; Vistra Q2 2026 10-Q
Vistra / Cogentrix: 10 plants, 5,496 MWVistraAbout 7.25x2027E, net of $0.7B NPV of tax benefitsNot disclosed. FERC approval Aug 2026; close expected late 2026Vistra 8-K Ex. 99.1, 5 Jan 2026
NRG / LS Power: 18 plants, about 13 GW, plus CPowerNRG"acquisition multiple of 7.5x 2026 EV/EBITDA, or 50% of estimated new build replacement cost"2026E, net of about $0.4B NPV of tax benefits; EV includes CPowerHedge book: derivative assets $1,050M, liabilities $1,146M; hedge percentage not disclosed. Closed 30 Jan 2026NRG 8-K Ex. 99.1, 12 May 2025; NRG Q1 2026 10-Q
Constellation / Calpine: 27.7 GW plus retailConstellation7.9x2026E on effective EV, after retained cash and tax attributes; includes retail and geothermalMixed; geothermal contracted from 2026. Closed 7 Jan 2026Constellation 8-K of 10 Jan 2025, Ex. 99.1 and Ex. 99.2
Capital Power / CSG Investments (Beal): La Paloma and 50% of HarquahalaCapital Power5.4x (4.8x on 2024E only)Five-year average 2024-2028Resource adequacy contracts to 2029 (La Paloma); 100% toll to 2031 (Harquahala); about 6 to 8 years left. Closed Feb 2024Capital Power release, 20 Nov 2023
Capital Power / Atlantic Power & Utilities: 50.15% of Frederickson 1Capital Power6.7x at the announced US$100MFive-year average 2024-2029 contracted EBITDA of US$15MTolled 100% to Oct 2030 (Morgan Stanley to Sep 2025, then Puget Sound Energy). Closed 28 Dec 2023 at US$97.5MCapital Power release, 10 Oct 2023 for price and EBITDA; page 18 of its April 2025 deck for 6.7x; closing release, 28 Dec 2023
Williams Socrates, 556 MWWilliams (developer)"The Company's build multiple for the project is approximately 5x EBITDA."Capex over EBITDA; about $1.6B including gas pipeline10-year, primarily fixed-price PPA with an extension optionWilliams 8-K, 3 Mar 2025
Williams, two further projectsWilliams (developer)"The Company's build multiple for the projects is approximately 5x EBITDA."Capex over EBITDA; the original $3.1B, 10-year scope only10-year PPAs at announcement, later extended to 12.5. That these are Apollo and Aquila is an inferenceWilliams 8-K, 1 Oct 2025
TransAlta Centralia coal-to-gas conversion, 700 MWTransAlta (developer)"approximately 5.5 times"Capex over adjusted EBITDA; about US$600M16-year fixed-price toll to Puget Sound Energy to 31 Dec 2044. Pre-FID (FID early 2027); needs Washington UTC approvalTransAlta 6-K Ex. 99.1, Dec 2025

Computed here, not stated by anyone

DealFigureHow it was computedSource
TransAlta / Blackstone: Mountain Peak and Canyon Peak, 318 MW, ColoradoAbout 12.5x; about US$3,145/kWUS$1.0B transaction value (including US$750M assumed debt) over about US$80M stated EBITDA, and over 318 MW. Tolled 25 and 30 years to investment grade buyers, full pass-through. Pending, conditional on Canyon Peak reaching commercial operation. United Power's cooperative status not confirmedTransAlta 6-K Ex. 99.1, 3 Jun 2026; prospectus supplement
Frederickson 1 at close6.5x, $733/kWUS$97.5M over US$15M; over 50.15% of 265 MWClosing release, 28 Dec 2023
NRG / LS Power at closeAbout 8.1xStock at its closing value, excluding $483M of working capital adjustments, over the same 2026 EBITDANRG Q1 2026 10-Q
Constellation / Calpine at closeAbout 9.5xAbout $21.8B equity at close plus $12.7B signing-date net debt, less $2.5B retained cash and tax attributes, over the 2026 EBITDA implied by 7.9x: $32.0B over $3.37B. Mixes an EV and an EBITDA for a fleet that has since shed about 5 GWConstellation Q2 2026 10-Q
Existing merchant or hedged plants, grossAbout 7.1x to 8.6xBefore tax benefits: Talen 7.1x, NRG 7.75x, Cogentrix 8.5x, Calpine 8.6xThe buyer documents above
NRG / Rockland: six Texas gas plants, 738 MWAbout $759/kW, no multiple$560M cash, 10 Apr 2025NRG Q1 2026 10-Q

On a like-for-like five-year basis, the in-window plants with 6 to 8 years of contract left sold at 5.4x to 6.5x (6.7x at Frederickson's announced price). Capital Power's April 2025 deck charts La Paloma and Harquahala at 4.8x as an average; its November 2023 release gives 5.4x on the five-year average and 4.8x on 2024E. On TransAlta, the buyer's prospectus deck says the price is "Below the cost of new build gas-fired peakers".

The Williams and Blackstone target of 6.35 percent is a capped return on a preferred-like position, not an unlevered asset return, and is not comparable to the 12.5x above. No 2023 to 2026 US observation near 10x was found; the nearest are Capital Power's 2017 deals, Decatur at 9.8x and East Windsor and York at 9.1x, from page 18 of its April 2025 deck. Constellation's divestitures to LS Power (4.4 GW in PJM for $5.0B; Brazos Valley, 606 MW, for $860M) have a price and no multiple.

Removed, and why

Five first-pass rows were removed because their filings tie them to general load growth, not to data center load.

PlantUtilityWhy removed
Big Hollow CTG, Jefferson County MO, 800 MWAmerenNo data center wording in the application or order (EA-2025-0238). The order ties it to replacing retired generation and to "new loads"
West Alton NGCC, St. Charles County MO, 2,100 MWAmerenTied to "large load customers who have signed" agreements and to Missouri SB 4 replacement. No data center wording in EA-2026-0226
McNew CCGT, Reno County KS, 710 MWEvergyLarge load is one of four factors the Missouri order lists. Missouri Staff's brief, summarizing the Public Counsel: need "is not solely due to an 'unexpected increase in load due to new data centers.'"
Oregon Clean Energy Center, OH (acquired)Indiana Michigan PowerNeed rests on the resource plan and the Rockport 3 retirement. The only data center mention is an intervenor's
Yates 8-10, Coweta County GAGeorgia PowerThe certification record ties it only to "unprecedented load growth"

Four cells were also removed. The "2.8 gigawatts" once attached to Big Hollow came from the West Alton application. A Monarch line saying Anthropic tranches start in late 2027 was wrong: the dates are redacted, and "late 2027" in the S-1 refers to Microsoft in Portugal. A reading that Oracle is VoltaGrid's gas counterparty was removed, because Energy Transfer's filings name Oracle and not VoltaGrid, and the Oracle filings read do not mention VoltaGrid. A reading that TransAlta's seller captured a development premium had no primary source and was removed.

One plant is not placed and is not among the 31. Williams' Aquila, Utah, 520 MW on a 12.5-year term inside the Blackstone JV, sits in PacifiCorp territory outside an RTO, but no filing read gives its grid status.

Sources

Only needed if you are checking a figure. Each cell was read from a primary document. A separate reviewer checked most of them a second time; a few, among them the Georgia in-service dates and the Abilene 9-10 cells, were read once. A settlement term accepted in globo, a FERC notice summarizing an applicant, a staff report and a PSC notice summarizing a utility's application are treated as party filings, not findings. Megawatts are the company's own number in its own words, and documents for one plant often count different things. The multiples' sources are in their table.

Entergy Louisiana. LPSC Order U-37425 with the Final Stipulated Settlement Term Sheet, 29 August 2025, for Laidley. Order U-37882 and the Rule 57 motion of 2 April 2026 for Evest. Entergy's 2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q. Releases of 1 December 2025 and 4 November 2025. FERC notice CP26-549, Federal Register 2026-14686.

Entergy Mississippi. SB 2001, 2024 Second Extraordinary Session, section 22. Entergy's 10-K and 10-Q above. FERC notices CP26-555 (Federal Register 2026-15289) and CP26-75 (2026-02759).

Cleco. Application in LPSC Docket U-38035, 1 July 2026, Cleco witness testimony and the schedule motion, all party filings. Cleco's Q2 2026 10-Q. Applied Digital's 10-K; the link to its Delta Forge 1 is an inference.

Georgia Power. GPSC Final Order in Dockets 56298 and 56310, December 2025. The all-source application (Commission document 223493), post-hearing brief of 16 December 2025 (224871) and joint statement of Staff and Georgia Power of 26 August 2026 (228126), all party filings. Southern Company's 2025 10-K.

Wisconsin Electric. PSCW Final Decision in 6630-TE-113, 21 May 2026, and the approved VLC and Bespoke tariff sheets. Certificate decisions for Oak Creek, 6630-CE-317 and Paris, 6630-CE-316. Party filings: the Foundry Ridge and Red Oak Ridge applications, data response BS-104, the Second Amended and Restated PCA of 29 September 2025, the WE-GO data response, the gas precedent agreement and the plant assignment table. WEC Energy's Q2 2026 10-Q.

NiSource. IURC orders in Cause 46322 and Cause 46362, 17 June 2026. NiSource's 2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q.

Cheyenne Power Hub. Wyoming PSC public notices, Docket 20003-263-EN-26, Record 18057, and the South Cheyenne Transmission Project, Record 18235. Black Hills's Q4 2025 earnings call transcript, filed as a 425. The Tallgrass and Mitsubishi release of 15 May 2026 and the Crusoe and Tallgrass release of 24 July 2025.

Kilby. Chevron's Q2 2026 10-Q and 2025 10-K. Chevron's release of 22 June 2026 and the Chevron and Engine No. 1 release of 28 January 2025. The current ownership, "a 50/50 joint venture between Chevron and Joulent", is from Chevron's Kilby project site, read 25 September 2026. ERCOT's GIS reports for July and August 2026 and co-located battery report of August 2026. TCEQ's draft permit notice, 181895 and PSDTX1684, 15 April 2026.

Goodnight. TCEQ application 182880 and PSDTX1698. PUCT order in Docket 59220.

Homer City. FERC filing ER23-2614, 31 July 2026. The Homer City Redevelopment release of 1 April 2026. The AECOM PSD application of 4 August 2025; DEP's comment response and Plan Approval 32-00457A, 18 November 2025. EQT's 8-K Ex. 99.1, 22 July 2025. CION Investment Corp's Q2 2026 10-Q.

Monarch. Nscale's Form S-1 of 18 September 2026 and Exhibit 10.25, the Anthropic order form. The AIP, Caterpillar and Boyd CAT release of 28 January 2026, WVDEP application R14-0042, 20 April 2026, HB 2014 as enrolled and the Governor's release of 3 September 2026.

Southaven. Solaris's 2025 10-K, Q2 2026 10-Q, Master Equipment Rental Agreement, Ex. 10.4 and Stateline LLC agreement, Ex. 10.3. MDEQ PSD permit 0680-00119, 11 March 2026. SpaceX's prospectus of 12 June 2026 and Q2 2026 10-Q. The plant is tied to the site by an equipment count that matches Solaris's orders and the permit. Both venture parties use the same off-grid sentence, so the two are not independent.

Matador and Hillcore. Fermi's Q2 2026 10-Q and 2025 10-K, accession 0002071778-26-000010. More detail in Large-Load Power Contracts: The Record.

Williams, Ohio. OPSB staff report, Case 25-0185-EL-BLN, 29 May 2025. The case page for 25-0188-EL-BGN, the release of 3 February 2026 on Apollo (25-973-EL-BGN) and the release of 26 June 2026 on Socrates the Younger (26-0169-EL-BLN). The Neo pre-application letter, 26-0627-EL-BGN, 20 May 2026. Williams' Q2 2026 10-Q, 2025 10-K, and 8-K of 13 July 2026, Ex. 99.1 and Ex. 99.2.

VoltaGrid. TCEQ application 182467. VoltaGrid's releases of 15 October 2025, 10 November 2025 and 11 May 2026. Energy Transfer's 8-K Ex. 99.1 for Q3 and Q4 2025.

Abilene 9-10. TCEQ application 182126 and its preliminary decision notice. Crusoe's releases, including 27 March 2026. Energy Transfer's 8-K above for gas deliveries to Oracle's Abilene data center from January 2026, buildings not stated.

Exclusions. No executive is named and no motive is attributed. Excluded: plants tied only to general load growth, gas as backup on a grid-fed campus, platforms with no site, and sites with no offtaker. Regulated deals are filed publicly and many private ones are not, so the count of 3 in an organized market should be read that way.

All analysis by Tafel Power from public sources.


Share on LinkedIn

Questions, corrections or disagreement on any of this are welcome: kris@tafelpower.com

More from Insights

September 16, 2026

How a Utility Gets Paid

A regulated utility earns on one equation with three terms, and one of them moves far more than the others. Across nineteen US utilities the allowed rate of return sits in a narrow band while rate base varies by nineteen times even after setting the two smallest aside. So the ranking of who earns most is a rate base ranking, and that decides which structures a utility can say yes to.

September 16, 2026

The Hidden Clocks of Power

Twelve months in, revenue is below plan. The same number fits a bad offer, the wrong team, a broken process, economics that do not work, a strategy that is simply early, and one the company cannot afford. Each needs a different answer.